20 June 2009
14 June 2009
Crunching Numbers with Different Results
I crunched CBO's estimates for 2009 and came up with different results than the New York Times.
CBO's projections for 2009 went from a $710B surplus in its January 2001 report to a $1,842B deficit in March 2009, a change of -$2,552B.
- The economic and technical changes from January 2001 to January 2004 and September 2008 to March 2009 account for -$1,099B, or 43% of the total change.
- Legislative changes from January 2001 to September 2008, plus economic and technical changes between January 2004 to September 2008, account for an additional -$798B, or 31% of the total.
- Legislative changes from September 2008 to March 2009 account for the remaining -$655B, or 26% of the total.
Think about that for a second. Without the economic and technical changes due to the recessions, CBO's budget projections for 2009 worsened between the 6 months from September 2008-March 2009 (26%) almost as much as during the 92 months from January 2001-September 2008 (31%).
Perhaps, that's not a fair comparison. A better one might be comparing the legislative changes during the economic downturns. For example, legislative changes from January 2001-January 2004 (-$629B, or 25%, over 24 months) and January 2008-March 2009 (-$655B, or 26%, over 14 months).
Finally, in January 2007 when Democrats took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the CBO projected a $118B deficit for 2009. The economic, technical, and legislative changes from January 2001 to January 2007 (72 months) account for 32% (-$828B) of the total change from January 2001 to March 2009.
In the 26 months since Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, CBO has added $1,724B to the 2009 deficit projection or 68% of the total change. Ignoring economic and technical changes (-$841B), legislative changes amount to 35% (-$883B) of the total change.
That means legislative changes alone, during the 26 months Democrats controlled Congress from January 2007 to March 2009, account for more of the change in the 2009 deficit than the economic, technical and legislative changes combined over the 72 months from January 2001 to January 2007.
Of course, my concern (apparently shared by many) over the current deficits is more oriented toward the future than the past. Legislative changes just from January 2009 to March 2009 (-$372B) account for 15% of the downturn with additional spending being proposed daily. As a result, the next CBO update in September 2009 may project a 2009 deficit that is much worse than the current projections ($1,825B to 1,845B deficit). In addition, total assets of the Federal Reserve have increased significantly from $869 billion on August 8, 2007, to $2 trillion now!UPDATE:
CBO Director's Blog: August Monthly Budget Review
| CBO Projections | Projected 2009 Surplus/Deficit | 2009 Legislative Change from Previous Projection | 2009 Economic & Technical Change from Previous Projection | House | Senate | White House | |
Jan 2000 | 444 | R (223) | R (55) | D (Clinton) | |||
Apr 2000 | 449 | 0 | 5 | R (223) | R (55) | D (Clinton) | |
Jul 2000 | 624 | -6 | 181 | R (223) | R (54) | D (Clinton) | |
Jan 2001 | 710 | -83 | 169 | R (221) | R (50) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2002 | 250 | -317 | -143 | R (222) | D (50) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2002 | 263 | -1 | 14 | R (222) | D (50) | R (Bush) | |
Aug 2002 | 133 | -44 | -86 | R (222) | D (50) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2003 | 104 | -3 | -26 | R (229) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2003 | 62 | -35 | -7 | R (229) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Aug 2003 | -170 | -151 | -81 | R (229) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2004 | -268 | -78 | -20 | R (227) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2004 | -281 | 0 | -13 | R (227) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Sep 2004 | -311 | -50 | 20 | R (225) | R (51) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2005 | -207 | 113 | -9 | R (232) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2005 | -219 | 0 | -12 | R (232) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Sep 2005 | -322 | -110 | 7 | R (231) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2006 | -242 | 18 | 62 | R (231) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2006 | -225 | 21 | -4 | R (231) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Aug 2006 | -305 | -131 | 51 | R (231) | R (55) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2007 | -118 | 94 | 93 | D (233) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2007 | -135 | -14 | -3 | D (233) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Aug 2007 | -216 | -112 | 31 | D (231) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2008 | -198 | 49 | -31 | D (232) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Mar 2008 | -206 | -20 | 12 | D (233) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Sep 2008 | -437 | -131 | -100 | D (235) | D (51) | R (Bush) | |
Jan 2009 | -1184 | -283 | -464 | D (255) | D (58) | D (Obama) | $180B TARP, $104B AMT+ |
Mar 2009 | -1665 | -195 | -286 | D (254) | D (58) | D (Obama) | Stimulus (ARRP) + CHIP |
Mar 2009 | -1842 | -177 | 0 | D (254) | D (58) | D (Obama) | $125B Reserve for Financial Stabilization Efforts |
2001-2003 Economic + Technical | -349 | Legislative | -629 | Total | -978 | (Bush) | |
2004-Sep 08 Economic + Technical | 104 | Legislative | -273 | Total | -169 | (Bush) | |
Sep 08-Jan 09 Economic + Technical | -464 | Legislative | -283 | Total | -747 | (Bush/Obama) | |
Jan-Mar 2009 Economic + Technical | -286 | Legislative | -372 | Total | -658 | (Obama) |
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